Khanan's Posterous http://khanangrauer.com Random Rants posterous.com Fri, 05 Feb 2010 19:24:02 -0800 Hayek vs Keynes Rap - For Geeks Only.. http://khanangrauer.com/hayek-vs-keynes-rap-for-geeks-only http://khanangrauer.com/hayek-vs-keynes-rap-for-geeks-only

Permalink | Leave a comment  »

]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/385404/me.jpg http://posterous.com/users/160TgHS7iRH Khanan Grauer Khanan Khanan Grauer Thu, 28 Jan 2010 17:11:00 -0800 We are witnessing a shift in the tech industry http://khanangrauer.com/we-are-witnessing-a-shift-in-the-tech-industr http://khanangrauer.com/we-are-witnessing-a-shift-in-the-tech-industr

It’s fascinating to see how much buzz was generated around the iPad. Way, way before launch, rumors ran wild and the press enjoyed every bit of it. I don’t remember seeing anything so hyped up in a long time. 

People said things like it’s an ‘iPhone for old people.’ And perhaps there is truth to that - it’s a giant iPhone. People look at that and ask ‘where is the innovation?’ 

Take a step back. What I think people are missing is the notion that Apple pioneered the iPhone, that very interface that changed the way we interact with cell phones. The interaction made possible by touch, and the rapidly growing application market turned the iPhone into a thing from the future. People look at that as a ‘thing of the past.’ Funny, how quickly we forget. 

OK, now we got a giant iPhone. So what? Steve Jobs positioned the tablet as a device in between the cell phone and a laptop. That was the explicit message.

The implicit message is very different. The tablet aims to completely change our interaction with hardware and software. There is no more room for a laptop. No more room for a keyboard and a mouse. Those are the things of the past. The iPad is not intended to be a ‘middle’ device implicitly. 

What I think people are missing is rushing to judge the device immediately on what it offers. It’s missing a camera, an X port, etc. The real value is the extra display real estate offered on the device. Think about the apps of the future. 

The iPhone pioneered touch and how we consume and interact with information. Browsing, gaming, watching videos, and so on from a device that fits in our pocket. The app platform took off and now there’s so many apps that we don’t know what to do with. Playing with the apps available on the iPhone can be a full time job. 

But what’s missing from the iPhone/iPod family is a native ability to create things. It’s difficult to write email, to draw, to do anything creative that is much easier on a laptop with a large screen, mouse and keyboard. Having the extra horse power that the iPad offers, and a proven platform where developers are actively engaged, opens up a new door in our industry. Someone told me: the developer is now the ultimate end user. I can’t even begin to imagine the creative applications of the future. What really jumped at me is iWork and the re-design that took place specifically for the tablet. That is the sort of innovation I’m talking about. Imagine a Photoshop app? Imagine OmniGraffle? As developers get their hands on the SDK and start rolling out future apps intended for the tablet, then I think people will get it. Judging it right now on what it’s capable of does not serve it justice. 

Looking ahead, what is really needed from a PC/Mac? Mac OS X? We see that the innovation is shifting from the OS to the web. The web has pioneered tons of applications and ways we work. I use Gmail for all email, Outlook is gone for example. Perhaps the desktop/laptop will belong to the hardcore users that need the extra power. For myself, having the tools I need on a tablet device would eliminate the laptop. Need heavy computing resources? That's located in a cloud. 

It’s also interesting to note that Apple is a closed system. There are pros and cons for that. However, another thing that strikes me is the Google vision where apps are in a browser - not downloaded as third parties. I think that is the fundamental difference in vision between the titans. It also strikes me that the titans are trying to figure it out - i.e. Android vs. Chrome OS. 

Lastly, when I see people saying ‘it’s missing this’ and ‘it’s missing that’ - that shows only that there is demand and leaves room for improvement. No I don’t work at Apple and applaud them for making big, gutsy moves to change the order of things. Respect. 

Update***

I mentioned OmniGraffle in this post and have recently encountered this: http://blog.omnigroup.com/2010/01/29/ipad-or-bust/

The revolution has begun! 

Permalink | Leave a comment  »

]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/385404/me.jpg http://posterous.com/users/160TgHS7iRH Khanan Grauer Khanan Khanan Grauer Mon, 25 Jan 2010 21:40:00 -0800 Objectivism - Ayn Rand http://khanangrauer.com/objectivism-ayn-rand http://khanangrauer.com/objectivism-ayn-rand

I have been reading Ayn Rand "Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal" and while it's fascinating, there are two fundamental arguments that it fails to answer. (These are two that I see, there may very well be more) 

The argument that the world should be left to laissez faire economics is a fine one, however:

1. How will laissez faire work to resolve negative externalities? An externality is an outcome of an economic transaction where there is an impact on a third factor that is not directly involved. For example, a power plant that deals with supply and demand of its business negatively affects pollution of the air. While say, unregulated, power plants compete for business: figure out the cheapest way to produce most power - what is the incentive for them not to pollute the air? More on economic externalities here. 

2. While I'm a huge believer in free, unregulated markets: how does this hold up in third world countries, specifically where there is a high death rate from malaria? Bill Gates interestingly said that more money is being invested in R&D of male pattern hair loss vs. curing malaria victims in poor countries. After all, people in those countries do not have the money to afford drugs - hence what is the incentive to invest in producing drugs to those countries from a free market perspective? Free markets thrive on only one factor: markets. This, among other reasons, is why Bill Gates formed the philanthropic foundation: address those where free markets fail. I cannot find the link, however remember reading where Bill Gates & Warren Buffet talk of 'creative capitalism' to address these failures in great detail. 

I wonder how fans of Ayn would approach these two points. Overall, I highly recommend reading the book as it's super thoughtful and stimulating. 

Below are videos I found posted by Brad Feld. It's a fascinating interview of Ayn Rand by Mike Wallace on Objectivism in 1959:

Permalink | Leave a comment  »

]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/385404/me.jpg http://posterous.com/users/160TgHS7iRH Khanan Grauer Khanan Khanan Grauer Sun, 24 Jan 2010 01:32:00 -0800 Nice to see Volcker impacting policy http://khanangrauer.com/nice-to-see-volcker-impacting-policy http://khanangrauer.com/nice-to-see-volcker-impacting-policy

I think this will be a very tough battle: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/21/business/21volcker.html?hp

Permalink | Leave a comment  »

]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/385404/me.jpg http://posterous.com/users/160TgHS7iRH Khanan Grauer Khanan Khanan Grauer Thu, 10 Sep 2009 13:20:00 -0700 How were so many people wrong? http://khanangrauer.com/how-were-so-many-people-wrong http://khanangrauer.com/how-were-so-many-people-wrong One of the top articles I've seen on the economic crisis from Barry Eichengreen @ Berkeley.

Permalink | Leave a comment  »

]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/385404/me.jpg http://posterous.com/users/160TgHS7iRH Khanan Grauer Khanan Khanan Grauer Thu, 03 Sep 2009 04:34:00 -0700 What makes entrepreneurs entrepreneurial? http://khanangrauer.com/what-makes-entrepreneurs-entrepreneurial-0 http://khanangrauer.com/what-makes-entrepreneurs-entrepreneurial-0

This is probably one of the best papers I have seen on the subject. Although I did not perform a study on my own, I have had the pleasure of interacting with a bunch of entrepreneurs. The arguments in this paper nail it.

The paper makes an insightful distinction between causal reasoning and effectual reasoning.

Causal rationality begins with a pre-determined goal and a given set of means. In IT for example, causal reasoning is we need to built this architecture to support business X – here is how we are going to do it (step by step). Causal reasoning, according to this paper, is also what we learn in school.

Effectual reasoning does not begin with specific goals. Opposed to causal reasoning, there are a given set of means that allows goals to emerge contingently over time from the varied imaginations and diverse aspirations of the founders and the people they interact with. Basically navigating in unchartered waters in the hopes of discovery. Key word here is ‘discovery.’

This may sound a bit crazy. But then, I will reference a quote (not from this paper) that to me re-enforces this view:

“All progress depends on the unreasonable man” - George Bernard Shaw

Lastly, this paper has incredible humor, as can be seen by this note:

Media_http3bpblogspot_bjihe

The paper can be found here.

Permalink | Leave a comment  »

]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/385404/me.jpg http://posterous.com/users/160TgHS7iRH Khanan Grauer Khanan Khanan Grauer Wed, 08 Jul 2009 10:49:00 -0700 Google to take over the OS market from Microsoft? Really? http://khanangrauer.com/google-to-take-over-the-os-market-from-micros http://khanangrauer.com/google-to-take-over-the-os-market-from-micros
Media_http3bpblogspot_mkszs

News broke all over the web.

It’s amazing to me how quickly people hype up a technology. We haven’t even seen the operating system yet. However, there seems to be strong consensus that it will hit Microsoft where it hurts.

I’m dubious. Somehow failures are forgotten. I recall Google Knol and the attempt to take out Wikipedia. And the countless other projects coming out of Google Labs that don’t make prime time. Google still is Google because of search – (ad revenue).

Has Android taken over the mobile space? Well, they’ve done well, but could not nearly compare to the sheer amount of applications developed on the iPhone platform.

Perhaps this will be a great operating system – but the argument that you don’t need Desktop Apps is still premature. I would like for someone to give me Photoshop in a browser, for example. In my view, this still requires a lot of time – only when Applications really get good in the browser will there be steam for this to take off. The argument that the OS should get out of the way is sweet and cute – but not yet realistic.

If, however, Google is successful in making a platform, similar to what Apple has done with the iPhone – that will allow software companies to release their Desktop Apps in a browser; I believe that would be the sauce to provide momentum for this idea. Until then, the Chrome OS will apply to a select audience and Microsoft is not going anywhere.

Permalink | Leave a comment  »

]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/385404/me.jpg http://posterous.com/users/160TgHS7iRH Khanan Grauer Khanan Khanan Grauer Thu, 02 Jul 2009 03:24:00 -0700 Entrepreneurs are overconfident, more so than risk tolerant http://khanangrauer.com/entrepreneurs-are-overconfident-more-so-than http://khanangrauer.com/entrepreneurs-are-overconfident-more-so-than According to a Wharton doctoral student: link

Permalink | Leave a comment  »

]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/385404/me.jpg http://posterous.com/users/160TgHS7iRH Khanan Grauer Khanan Khanan Grauer Mon, 18 May 2009 02:20:00 -0700 Great quote from Marc Cuban http://khanangrauer.com/great-quote-from-marc-cuban http://khanangrauer.com/great-quote-from-marc-cuban "All that matters in business is that you get it right once.

Then everyone can tell you how lucky you are."

Permalink | Leave a comment  »

]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/385404/me.jpg http://posterous.com/users/160TgHS7iRH Khanan Grauer Khanan Khanan Grauer Tue, 28 Apr 2009 08:05:00 -0700 Super interesting letter explaining the current economic policy from Peter Thiel http://khanangrauer.com/super-interesting-letter-explaining-the-curre http://khanangrauer.com/super-interesting-letter-explaining-the-curre This was released by Clarium Capital Partners (run by Peter) and goes nicely in-depth about the current economic conditions, trends, and policy reactions. Gives a chilling feeling as to how things are - but I still subscribe to the philosophy that it's impossible to tell where things will go. The most you can do is bet. :)

Here is the gem.

Permalink | Leave a comment  »

]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/385404/me.jpg http://posterous.com/users/160TgHS7iRH Khanan Grauer Khanan Khanan Grauer Thu, 23 Apr 2009 04:35:00 -0700 Amazing reference for Entrepreneurs! http://khanangrauer.com/amazing-reference-for-entrepreneurs http://khanangrauer.com/amazing-reference-for-entrepreneurs I've had the pleasure of speaking to Vinod Khosla from Khosla Ventures. Vinod has seen it all when it comes to entrepreneurs. Especially in the early days of finding Sun Microsystems.

After being pointed to his site, I discovered amazing material for entrepreneurs. All here for us to consume:

http://www.khoslaventures.com/resources2.html

Topics on product management, sales, people and more. Thanks Vinod.

Permalink | Leave a comment  »

]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/385404/me.jpg http://posterous.com/users/160TgHS7iRH Khanan Grauer Khanan Khanan Grauer Thu, 16 Apr 2009 06:01:00 -0700 On the latest economic news: http://khanangrauer.com/on-the-latest-economic-news http://khanangrauer.com/on-the-latest-economic-news
Media_http4bpblogspot_geini

Permalink | Leave a comment  »

]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/385404/me.jpg http://posterous.com/users/160TgHS7iRH Khanan Grauer Khanan Khanan Grauer Sat, 28 Mar 2009 04:35:00 -0700 South Park clip on the financial troubles http://khanangrauer.com/south-park-clip-on-the-financial-troubles http://khanangrauer.com/south-park-clip-on-the-financial-troubles

Permalink | Leave a comment  »

]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/385404/me.jpg http://posterous.com/users/160TgHS7iRH Khanan Grauer Khanan Khanan Grauer Tue, 24 Mar 2009 07:32:00 -0700 Why hiring is even more difficult in a down turn http://khanangrauer.com/why-hiring-is-even-more-difficult-in-a-down-t http://khanangrauer.com/why-hiring-is-even-more-difficult-in-a-down-t A great post by Auren Hoffman as to this paradox.

Permalink | Leave a comment  »

]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/385404/me.jpg http://posterous.com/users/160TgHS7iRH Khanan Grauer Khanan Khanan Grauer Mon, 23 Mar 2009 09:49:00 -0700 One of the best OP-ED pieces I've seen on the financial crisis http://khanangrauer.com/one-of-the-best-op-ed-pieces-ive-seen-on-the http://khanangrauer.com/one-of-the-best-op-ed-pieces-ive-seen-on-the This is a great interview with Gary Becker. I'm not an expert in economics - but I do enjoy the subject and have spent time reading many editorials on the latest events. I tend to side with Gary the most. Specifically in the belief of free markets and their ability to correct themselves. The mistake of having an inconsistent policy at the Treasury and the hard questioning of "Keynesianism."

On top of that, I'm always reminded what Leo Tolstoy taught me from War and Peace. "The human mind is not capable of understanding colossal events." He was attributing that to war, but I think it's also applicable here.

Alan Greenspan further confirmed this view by saying "we are just not smart enough" when he testified in the congress last year.

Great read: Here it is.

Permalink | Leave a comment  »

]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/385404/me.jpg http://posterous.com/users/160TgHS7iRH Khanan Grauer Khanan Khanan Grauer Fri, 02 Jan 2009 10:06:00 -0800 Android Netbooks coming in 2010 http://khanangrauer.com/android-netbooks-coming-in-2010 http://khanangrauer.com/android-netbooks-coming-in-2010
Media_http4bpblogspot_mevja

Venture Beat reports Google Android Netbooks will come out likely in 2010. Article is here. I’m a skeptic in this move. Fred Wilson wrote a great post on the ‘wishes’ for 2009 – and one of the things he says:

“Google starts cutting products and services - This is a bit of the same wish as the last one. But very different in some other ways. Google can do almost anything they put their mind to because they have the engineering resources, the infrastructure, the balance sheet, and the huge revenue stream to support it. But that doesn't mean they should try to do everything. As a shareholder, as a VC active in the internet market sector, and as a fan of the company, I think Google needs to "rationalize" their business in 2009. I don't know how much cost they could cut if they really tried to get serious about a Jack Welch/GE style business unit analysis, but I know it would be significant. I wish they'd pick five to ten businesses they want to be number one or two in and invest heavily in them and forget about everything else.”


I was optimistic that Linux would hit the desktop market hard – but that turned out quite difficult. Believing that Google can penetrate the netbook market with a mobile operating system seems skittish. Let’s see how it goes with the ‘G’ phone first. 

Permalink | Leave a comment  »

]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/385404/me.jpg http://posterous.com/users/160TgHS7iRH Khanan Grauer Khanan Khanan Grauer Fri, 28 Nov 2008 05:54:00 -0800 FinGad update http://khanangrauer.com/fingad-update http://khanangrauer.com/fingad-update

So they say that one learns by failure. We have worked on FinGad for quite some time and have finally concluded that the model is fundamentally flawed. Not that the idea is bad or would not work, but that it would require an intense amount of capital for advertising to get the word out. It seems that the site in its current form is not viral – and generally folks find finance boring. One exception to that theory is PayPal – which brilliantly executed on making finance ‘cool.’ Greg Galant at Venture Voice has excellent interviews and one of them is with David O. Sacks. David was the COO at PayPal and also produced a movie I enjoyed, Thank You for Smoking. David talks in great depth about how PayPal was started and what led to its growth.


For FinGad, we have essentially changed our focus. The one key word that came out of working on the startup is ‘focus.’ One interesting VC told me once that focus means taking a lens and burning something with it. You know how you get the tiny dot that’s very powerful and burns wood? He made that analogy to a focus of a company. We are finally beginning to learn.

With that, we have developed interesting new technology and made substantial changes to our team. The objective is to make investing a lot easier. I’m not ready to divulge the product yet, however this is by far the most challenging and interesting thing we’ve done so far as a company.

So stay on the lookout J

Permalink | Leave a comment  »

]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/385404/me.jpg http://posterous.com/users/160TgHS7iRH Khanan Grauer Khanan Khanan Grauer Tue, 16 Sep 2008 06:49:00 -0700 A friend of mine published a book http://khanangrauer.com/a-friend-of-mine-published-a-book http://khanangrauer.com/a-friend-of-mine-published-a-book
Media_http4bpblogspot_adpjd
I've had the pleasure of reading the work before it reached publication and enjoyed it a great deal. Check it out here. 

Summary below: 

"The Stock Market Philosopher: Insights of a Soviet-Born, New York-Bred Hedge Fund Trader is an entertaining examination of a successful Wall Street trader s thoughts on the stock market, starting with his early attraction to risk-taking endeavors. It's a thoughtful book on trading strategy masquerading as a memoir. Favel draws the reader in with tales of his early years in Soviet Ukraine, followed by his high school and college years in New York. Favel s interest in market strategy was piqued as a youth playing fantiki, a Russian children s game involving Bazooka Joe gum wrappers. His family emigrated to the United States while he was still in grade school and he continued his quest for quick riches through his college career. Favel s youthful exploits eventually paid off, as he began his Wall Street career and began mastering the art of trading. Explore the author s evolving out-of-the-box trading philosophy and strategies, including his thoughts on fundamental vs. technical analysis, modern portfolio theory and the random walk school of analysis."

Permalink | Leave a comment  »

]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/385404/me.jpg http://posterous.com/users/160TgHS7iRH Khanan Grauer Khanan Khanan Grauer Wed, 03 Sep 2008 03:16:00 -0700 Google taking over with Chrome http://khanangrauer.com/google-taking-over-with-chrome http://khanangrauer.com/google-taking-over-with-chrome
Media_http2bpblogspot_igalo
Google going into this direction is quite interesting and not surprising. Yesterday was a big day in the tech sector with the release of Google Chrome. The development took over two years and this project has been done in secret. I wonder how many other projects Google is working on right now that the public is completely unaware of. For example, my imagination tells me they're going to create 'boot software' - as some would say an "OS." On Techcrunch, there is a big debate going on between an 'OS' and a 'Browser.' Some have taken the opinion that the browser is the 'OS.' 

I see two sides to this argument: Those that are tech savvy understand what an OS means: the I/O, driver, filesystem, process, and other components. The other side envisions an 'OS' as a platform where to run applications, which is quite possible with Google Apps or other apps online. 

In my view, advanced hardware is becoming obsolete in the personal computing space. Of course it's hard to predict how things will go, but my thinking is as follows: 

Fast hardware on PCs (high speed CPUs, memory, video cards, mother boards, etc) will be necessary to run video games and resource intensive software such as video editing. 

For the majority of PC users that use the PC to surf the web, there will be little need for all that power. If the hardcore processing is done on the server side (where this high speed hardware matters) - that leaves the client to be a simple device running a browser like Chrome. Which taken a step further, Chrome is designed to run Internet applications, which get better and better with time. And as Google is moving to the direction of running 'everything' in a browser - what's left is only a browser is needed - which is where the evolution starts to a new 'OS.' I think this will require more time, specifically in the engineering effort required to improve browser based apps. We would potentially see a shift of computing resources going away from the PC and more to the server. 

This is interesting, as I've seen posts on Techcrunch to the effect of "Chrome will kill Windows." But my take on it is broader. If it's really possible to create GREAT APPS in a browser, will there really be a need for OS X?  

This is truly an exciting time to watch what happens. 

Permalink | Leave a comment  »

]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/385404/me.jpg http://posterous.com/users/160TgHS7iRH Khanan Grauer Khanan Khanan Grauer Mon, 01 Sep 2008 10:01:00 -0700 US Open Experience http://khanangrauer.com/us-open-experience http://khanangrauer.com/us-open-experience
Media_http3bpblogspot_sjyry
Thanks to a friend, I had the privilege of attending the US Open on Sunday night. We watched Elena Dementieva play Na Li and Marin Cilic play Novak Djokovic. The men's match proved more interesting as it lasted for 3 hours and 52 minutes! It was great to see the battle between Cilic and Djokovic, as both are great players. It's also amazing to me that some of these players are in their teens (Cilic is 19) and play so amazingly well. This photo was taken by an iPhone - not bad when no other camera is handy. Now both my friend and I are considering taking tennis lessons :)

Permalink | Leave a comment  »

]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/385404/me.jpg http://posterous.com/users/160TgHS7iRH Khanan Grauer Khanan Khanan Grauer